MCBL 2009 Preview

Since the RayPI is long dead and gone, I have stepped up to the plate to fill the void in my life that results from the RayPI’s absence. I’ve broken down each team into six categories to determine who has the best shot at unseating the legendary HornDawgs and taking home the 2009 title. The infield grades are determined by evaluating starters at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS. The outfield grades are determined by evaluating each starting OF. The starters grades are determined by evaluating all SPs, and the bullpen grade are determined by evaluating all RPs. The utility grade is determined by evaluating each starting UT, as well as any bench hitters. The history grade is determined by looking through the all-time standings and seeing who does well at adapting throughout the season to reach the playoffs.

Super Bad

One team defines "an exercise in futility." Historically, this team has not had a chance at the playoffs year in and year out, making them the Pittsburgh Pirates of the MCBL. 2008 did show an upward trend for the franchise, but will it continue?

Balls Out

Infield: C. Joe Mauer is doubtful for the opener as he tries to return from injury. Carlos Delgado was a beast in the second half of 2008 but has many doubters heading into this season. Chone Figgins is a great option at 2B and along with Rafael Furcal should provide the Balls with plenty of speed. Furcal was on his way to an MVP-type season before suffering an injury last year. Hank Blalock is a below-average option at 3B, and that might be putting it nicely.

Outfield: B+. A couple years ago, this group would be an easy A. However, Vladimir Guerrero has slowed down after aging an extra year over the offseason. Ichiro Suzuki might be beginning his decline. Magglio Ordonez doesn’t have much power left. These guys will hit for great average, though.

Starters: B. Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer will be battling for the Balls Out DL slot all season long. Javier Vazquez has ace-quality stuff and will benefit greatly from a move to the NL East. David Price is the wild card, with the potential to carry this team out of the cellar. Matt Garza and Jered Weaver are steady, productive options. If Brandon Morrow doesn’t get healthy soon, he’ll find himself in the pen, which might actually benefit Balls Out.

Bullpen: C+. B.J. Ryan isn’t a top closer or a top keeper, but if he can stay healthy he’ll contribute some solid numbers. Frank Francisco is a good RP2 to have, as he should excel in the Texas closer role.

Utility: B+. Look for Paul Konerko to contend for the Comeback Player of the Year award. Mark DeRosa will probably slot into the Balls Out lineup somewhere eventually. Andruw Jones belongs on the waiver wire, and Dallas McPherson is a good gamble that will likely not pay off.

History: F. You have to think that Jake will be able to crawl into the playoffs eventually, but history is not on his side. Still, he got pretty close to .500 last year, so a playoff berth might be closer than you think.

Report Card: C, B+, B, C+, B+, F.

Final Grade: C+

The Not-Quite-Newbie Division

This division features the two sophomore managers, each of whom received a brutal inauguration into the league in 2008. Will 2009 be a stepping stone to greener pastures, or will these two teams join Balls Out as perennial bottom feeders?

Brew Crew

Infield: B. Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Aramis Ramirez are high-quality players, while Kelly Johnson holds his own at 2B. Miguel Tejada is on a steep decline and drags this group down. If Escobar turns into a quality SS or Joe finds one on the market, this group will keep him in contention.

Outfield: A-. Matt Kemp is due to break out this year and possibly become a top-five OF. Bobby Abreu is a steady, reliable producer and a great fit as a second OF. Hunter Pence looks to take a step forward this year and could reach 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

Starters: B. Roy Halladay is as reliable as aces come, while Joba Chamberlain should pitch a lot of quality innings for the Crew. Max Scherzer, like Chamberlain, is a young arm with electric stuff. Adam Wainwright’s low WHIP will be a great addition to this rotation. I’m not a believer in Fausto Carmona, and I think Tommy Hanson might be a year away.

Bullpen: C+. Brian Fuentes should be a top-tier RP in Los Angeles with the team that gave K-Rod so many save opportunities. Manny Corpas is the preseason favorite to be the Rockies closer but was undependable the last time he had the job. Edwar Ramirez is likely to be cut when Joe makes his first move.

Utility: B+. Justin Upton should make a big leap this year and will see the bulk of the action at UT. Gary Sheffield and Nick Swisher are likely roster filler and will probably be free agents relatively quickly. Yunel Escobar might actually end up being a better option than starter Tejada.

History: D. Last year was an F for the first-year franchise, but the Crew received the all-important lesson in what not to do during 2008. If he can build off his mistakes, Joe has a shot at making the playoffs with this group.

Report Card: B, A-, B, C+, B+, D.

Final Grade: B-

Shockers

Infield: B+. A lot of good names in this group, but I feel a couple of them will fall short in 2009. Kevin Youkilis is due for a regression in his numbers, and Garrett Atkins would become irrelevant if traded from Colorado. Brandon Phillips regressed last year, but should still be solid. Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki are two building blocks in Colorado and have good fantasy outlooks.

Outfield: B+. Josh Hamilton is a great first OF, if just a tad overrated due to his inflated RBI total from last year. Shane Victorino is a five-tool threat and good as a third OF. Cameron Maybin will finally get a full-time job, though I wouldn’t bank on consistently-good production this year. His inclusion drags this group into B territory.

Starters: B. Josh Beckett is fantastic, if he can stay healthy. Ryan Dempster was a reach, as he’s unlikely to approach his 2008 numbers. Chris Young is a good bounce-back candidate in cavernous Petco Park. Ubaldo Jimenez will likely break through this year, even in Colorado. Andy Sonnanstine and Hiroki Kuroda are solid matchup options.

Bullpen: C-. Matt Lindstrom is already banged up, and since he is unproven in the closer role he is unlikely to get a crack at the job if someone else steps up and outperforms him. Joel Hanrahan is solid but not ready to be any fantasy team’s top closer. The clock is already ticking on George Sherrill, who might get the Shockers a handful of saves early before the Orioles turn to Chris Ray.

Utility: C. Pat Burrell is a good power bat when the team needs HRs/RBIs,and Willy Taveras will be in the lineup when the team needs SBs. Orlando Cabrera and Mike Lowell are cut candidates.

History: D. The Shockers were just as bad as the Crew last season, losing in the consolation tourney to finish dead last in the standings. A new year turns a new page for the franchise, and the outlook is bright, but this team is going to need significant upgrades during the season to contend.

Report Card: B+, B+, B, C, C, D.

Final Grade: B-

.500-ish

These teams could be playoff teams, or they could become lackadaisical in their day-to-day management and fall by the wayside. With the quality of the league as high as ever, it makes it even harder for middling teams to succeed. Who will catch the breaks?

DL Bound

Infield: C-. Michael Young doesn’t qualify at third yet, so this team is without a 3B. When Young is eligibile, his numbers still make for poor production from the hot corner. Mike Aviles isn’t going to hit for that high an average and doesn’t contribute much else. Dan Uggla adds big power at a power-starved position. Russell Martin and Justin Morneau keep this group from reaching D level.

Outfield: C+. Carlos Quentin probably won’t be able to repeat his 2008 numbers, making him a weak OF1. Curtis Granderson contributes across the board and is a great fantasy player. Chris Young, along with Dan Uggla, will keep this team’s average low.

Starters: C. Cole Hamels is an excellent ace, but there’s not much after him. I certainly wouldn’t trust Carlos Zambrano to regain form. Chris Carpenter looks good so far and will be a key to DL’s success. I’m not too high on Mike Pelfrey or Jesse Litsch.

Bullpen: B. Carlos Marmol is one of the best relievers in the game, and if he’s the closer in Chicago he should rack up a lot of saves. Francisco Cordero and Brian Wilson combine to give this team a great shot at winning saves every week.

Utility: A-. Johnny Damon is a great all-around player and will contribute across the board. Carlos Gomez is a speedster that can help with SBs. Coco Crisp is one of my breakout candidates this year, and James Loney could also play a prominent role. Hideki Matsui might need to be cut for a 3B.

History: B+. DL Bound finished third in the regular season last year, winning 57% of their games. I don’t see a repeat with this group, but I expect Dewey to make some smart adds throughout the season to contend for the playoffs again.

Report Card: C-, C+, C, B, A-, B+.

Final Grade: B-

Reverend Horton Heat

Infield: C+. Ian Kinsler is a top talent at 2B and a great keeper for the future. Ryan Doumit has a good shot at being in the top half of starting catchers. After that, the Reverend’s infield is filled with below-average infielders that are probably past their prime. All you can really count on from Derek Jeter now is a good average and a couple HRs and SBs. Derrek Lee doesn’t bring a lot of power to 1B, a position where you need to find a power bat. Adrian Beltre is in a walk year, so that’s good.

Outfield: A-. Carlos Beltran and Manny Ramirez are the backbone of this offense and will keep the Heat competitive in HR and RBI each week. Torii Hunter is a great, consistent third option in the outfield. If the good Reverend is to get back to the playoffs in 2009 after missing out last year, these guys need to stay healthy and productive.

Starters: C. John Lackey is a low-end SP1, but his consistency makes him a safe keeper. Cliff Lee is due for a regression, though I don’t think it will be as bad as some people predict. The rest of the rotation is pretty mundane, featuring the low-K numbers of Chien-Ming Wang, the limited upside of Jair Jurrjens and Oliver Perez, and the complete regression due from Joe Saunders (hint: don’t count on 17 wins). This team will struggle to win Ks each week, even if Mark Prior finds the time machine.

Bullpen: A. John Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez give Chance the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the league. People are anticipating that Chris Ray takes back the closer job sooner or later. If the Heat finds another closer, they are the easy favorite to win saves.

Utility: B-. Conor Jackson has some upside, but not enough to call him a breakout candidate. Eric Byrnes might be on the D-Backs bench more often than not. Rick Ankiel is a good option to stick in at UT when the Reverend needs an extra HR or two.

History: B. Chance is good to play around .500 every year and to sneak into the playoffs more often than not. If he’s stuck keeping two closers again though, the future won’t look as bright as the past does. Manny is a likely keeper moving forward to add to the Kinsler/Beltran group, but who else will step up?

Report Card: C+, A-, C, A, B-, B.

Final Grade: B

Eradicators

Infield: A-. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera give the ‘Cators an edge on anyone at the CI spots. Geovany Soto is one of the top catchers in the league after only one full year. Jhonny Peralta is an underrated SS that will bring some nice pop to the table. Howie Kendrick is the obvious weak link of this group, but his mediocrity can be overcome.

Outfield: B-. Vernon Wells has returned from his month-long absence caused by injury, but it’ll be a little while till he can regain his game. Jayson Werth is one of my favorite sleepers this year, and quality numbers are right there for him if he can stay healthy. Andre Ethier is a relative unknown but still starter-quality with some upside. This group needs a go-to number-one option.

Starters: A-. Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren are an enviable start to any rotation, but the talent dries up after them. Daisuke Matsuzaka isn’t nearly as good as his ERA would lead you to believe. Armando Galarraga came out of nowhere last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go right back. Johnny Cueto is the interesting name here, a young guy who flashed superior skills at times last year. He and Randy Johnson keep this group in the A grade. Dana Eveland is an interesting sleeper and barely made my top 75 SPs.

Bullpen: B+. Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria are fantastic pieces of the pen, but the ‘Cators need to find one more closer to assure they win saves most weeks. Scot Shields is great for what he is, a guy that helps keep ratios low and vultures some wins.

Utility: C. Jorge Cantu is unlikely to repeat last year’s numbers, and with two big roadblocks at 1B and 3B, he is likely to be traded. Randy Winn and Steven Pearce should soon be free agents.

History: B-. With 2007 champion Snorting HGH out of the league, the Eradicators are the last current team other to win a championship other than the HornDawgs, with that title coming in 2003. The last few years haven’t been kind to Ray though, despite winning the consolation tourney. Robbing Jake of Albert Pujols could be a big step to getting back to the top.

Report Card: A-, B-, A-, B+, C, B-.

Final Grade: B+

DILLIGAF

Infield: A. Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Brian Roberts, Evan Longoria. Bengie Molina could be Jose Molina and this would still be the best infield in the game.

Outfield: B-. Carlos Lee is a solid first OF. Ryan Ludwick has to prove that his 2008 explosion wasn’t a mirage. Jermaine Dye is a dependably good player, albeit with no upside.

Starters: C-. I’m a big Ervin Santana fan, but he’s due to be out for at least a month, and it will probably take him even longer to regain top form. He should be a weapon come playoff time, if Chris makes it that far. Justin Verlander and Aaron Harang have to prove they can rebound, and as the team’s second and third starter (and top two starters will Santana is injured), this is an overly weak rotation. Matt Cain is solid as a SP4 and has upside. With no other SPs on roster, this team could struggle for wins and strikeouts.

Bullpen: A-. Mariano Rivera and Jose Valverde make a great twosome at the top of the bullpen. Kevin Gregg could potentially close in Chicago. The club will be lucky to eek out any saves from Troy Percival, while Dan Wheeler will contribute good ratios.

Utility: B+. Brad Hawpe is consistently good and will bring some very nice numbers to the UT slot. Ivan Rodriguez could be cut if Bengie Molina starts out hot. Xavier Nady and Milton Bradley will be lucky to survive a month on the team.

History: B. This club has improved each of the last four years and made the playoffs in 2008 with a .548 win percentage. If the trend continues, Chris could compete for a top-two seed this year. It will be interesting to see how the league’s biggest streamer contends with the transaction cap.

Report Card: A, B-, C-, A-, B+, B.

Final Grade: B+

Contenders

These teams are either really strong heading into the season, or have a track record of regular season success that gives them the benefit of the doubt. In some cases, both of these axioms apply.

Crazy Spaniards

Infield: B. Ryan Howard keeps C-Span in contention for HRs and RBIs every week. Jose Lopez is an underrated 2B with some pop and good average. Chris Davis is the highly-touted breakout candidate for 2009. Even if he falls short of expectations, he should still be an above-average 3B. Manny Burris is a black hole at SS, and I don’t expect Matt Wieters to break camp with the team.

Outfield: A-. Ryan Braun and Alfonso Soriano are two of the top OFs in the league and are locked into the starting lineup. Denard Span has to fight for playing time in Minnesota, so it will be up to the Spaniards to find a quality third OF if Span fails.

Starters: A. CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb are great anchors to a rotation, and Roy Oswalt, Scott Baker and Felix Hernandez give C-Span the advantage in pitching against any team. Mark Buerhle and Andy Pettitte are reliable, low-risk guys, while Wandy Rodriguez has a ton of upside. Sean Marshall is an OK gamble but might be cut so the team can address other needs.

Bullpen: D+. Joey Devine is a decent sleeper this year but has had injury problems in the past. Anthony Reyes is due to finally become a quality starter, but the Spaniards would be better off with a top MR on the bench to use when Reyes doesn’t start.

Utility: C+. Ryan Zimmerman is solid as a 3B, but you can do better in the UT spot. Erick Aybar will see time if Burris fails. This team is missing at least one quality bat.

History: A. The Crazy Spaniards are always in the playoffs, and more often than not they have some measure of success, including last year’s second place finish. Cid can always be counted on for smart in-season pickups and remains a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

Report Card: B, A-, A, D+, C+, A.

Final Grade: B+

Cherry Poppers

Infield: A. Brian McCann and Chase Utley are tops at weak positions, giving the Poppers a big advantage. Jimmy Rollins is another elite option and gives this team the best MI in the league. Chipper Jones is a beast when healthy, and Carlos Pena’s power rounds out this impressive group.

Outfield: B-. Jacoby Ellsbury is a solid OF2, but as the team’s best outfielder, he’s a little weak. The speed will definitely be there though. Jay Bruce could join the elite at OF this year and be the OF1 this team needs. Raul Ibanez is solid but unspectacular.

Starters: B. James Shields isn’t a top SP1, but he’ll do just fine and be a quality arm. A.J. Burnett is a health risk and could put it on cruise control after signing a big contract. Josh Johnson came back strong last year and is primed for a great 2009. Clayton Kershaw is a top young SP who still needs refinement. Same goes for Chris Volstad. Derek Lowe is a great example of good pitcher, low ceiling.

Bullpen: A-. Brad Lidge is a great RP1, while Bobby Jenks is locked into the closer role in Chicago. Chad Qualls should do well with the job in Arizona, and Jason Motte was a shrewd pickup, as he’s now looking like the favorite for saves in St. Louis, with Chris Perez being the other main candidate.

Utility: C+. Lastings Milledge should be good for steals and some power. Josh Anderson is a likely waiver candidate.

History: B+. The Poppers rebounded from a poor 2007 to win third place last year, and the team is set up to contend yet again this year. I expect them to work the wire well and solidify the OF.

Report Card: A, B-, B, A-, C+, B+.

Final Grade: B+

LaBlais

Infield: A-. David Wright and Jose Reyes are elite fantasy players and the anchor of this offense. Lance Berkman proved he still has a lot left in the tank. Robinson Cano struggled last year but should be back to his normal numbers in 2009. Pablo Sandoval is a great pickup at catcher, as he should play more than regular catchers since he actually is in the field instead of behind the plate.

Outfield: A-. B.J. Upton is primed for a power breakout, and he could conceivably be a 25/40 guy. Nick Markakis and Alex Rios are both great young OFs that contribute across the board. The Blaze should be very happy with this entire offense.

Starters: B+. The team doesn’t have a fantasy ace, but if Francisco Liriano can regain form, he could be that guy. Jon Lester is another emerging young pitcher with a shot at making the leap. My favorite of this group is Zach Grienke, and I think his performance will be huge for The Blaze. Edinson Volquez is looking to build on a great rookie year. Erik Bedard has bounce-back potential.

Bullpen: B+. Jon Broxton has the opportunity to join the elite level of closers. Heath Bell has been consistently great and should transition into the closer role just fine. Brandon Lyon is the lead candidate for saves in Detroit, while Brad Ziegler will look to snipe some saves in Oakland.

Utility: B+. Nelson Cruz is the top sleeper of 2009, and could approach 30 HRs and 20 SBs in Texas. Alex Gordon is another good young bat but likely won’t play for The Blaze. Adam Jones is a waiver candidate, while Matt LaPorta is a year away from fantasy relevance.

History: B+. This team played well in 2008 but missed the playoffs. Consistently over .500, The Blaze should be back in the playoffs this year.

Report Card: A-, A-, B+, B+, B+, B+.

Final Grade: B+

Fear & Arrogance

Infield: A. It’s possible that all of these guys finish in the top-five at their positions in 2009. Mike Napoli has unmatched power potential at catcher. Prince Fielder and Dustin Pedroia are safe, reliable guys. Aubrey Huff blew up last year and has the skill-set to repeat. And Stephen Drew is one of the top, emerging shortstops in the game.

Outfield: A+. Even with Holliday’s expected regression from leaving Coors Field, this is still an amazing outfield. Grady Sizemore is the consensus top OF in fantasy baseball. Jason Bay had elite numbers hitting in Boston. And while Holliday will lose some power, he’s still starter-worthy and top-notch as a OF3.

Starters: A-. While the team doesn’t have a true fantasy #1, the combination of Chad Billingsley and Scott Kazmir makes up for it. Ricky Nolasco is undervalued pitching in Florida and would be a good second starter on a lot of teams. John Danks probably won’t have the same level of success but should be solid, while Kevin Slowey has great control and can sustain small ratios. John Maine and the health of Ben Sheets drags this group down just a bit.

Bullpen: D+. Mike Gonzalez is a solid second closer but shouldn’t be counted on for all a team’s saves. Jose Arredondo should help with ratios but doesn’t have a shot a closing. F & A should look to bring in one or two closing candidates to strengthen this weakness.

Utility: A. You won’t find a UT much better than Nate McLouth, who is like a light version of Sizemore. Edwin Encarnacion is likely trade bait. Ryan Theriot is a good sub for Drew when the team needs steals. Jeff Francoeur is a waiver candidate.

History: A. Fear & Arrogance is entrenched in the playoff picture every year, though last year’s sixth-place finish was lower than usual. This team has reached the title game in three of the last five years and should always be considered a favorite to win.

Report Card: A, A+, A-, D+, A, A.

Final Grade: A-

The HornDawgs

Infield: B. Alex Rodriguez’s absence will hurt, but it shouldn’t prevent this team from making the playoffs. Joey Votto is a great young 1B that’s only getting better. Alexei Ramirez has been compared to a young Soriano. J.J. Hardy has elite power at SS. Jorge Posada could bounce back and is a solid last-round selection. Mark Reynolds will fill in for A-Roid and offers great power and good SB potential.

Outfield: A-. Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn combine to give great power and speed numbers in the outfield, while Corey Hart fills up the stat sheet in both categories.

Starters: A. Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are arguably the best 1-2 combination of aces in the league. Yovani Gallardo is expected to break out after an injury-lost 2008. Ted Lilly has been consistently excellent since joining the Cubs. Brett Myers looked like his old dominant self in the second half. Gil Meche has turned into a reliably good SP. Manny Parra is the weak link and likely to be cut soon.

Bullpen: B+. Kerry Wood is a dominant closer if he can stay off the DL. Matt Capps has been excellent when called upon, though his save opportunities tend to be few and far between. Trevor Hoffman can still rack up saves. Huston Street is the wild card here.

Utility: A. David Ortiz’s power bat in the UT spot help make up for any deficiencies the offense might have.

History: A+. Four championships in the last five years. The HornDawgs have never finished lower than third nor had a sub-.500 winning percentage. Could this be the year the Dawgs finally fall? The quality of the league is better nowadays, so it’s definitely possible.

Report Card: B, A-, A, B+, A, A+.

Final Grade: A-